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EUR/AUD Breaks Out of a Consolidation Pattern

The EUR/AUD has been in consolidation throughout June as we can see in the 4H chart. Before that, we know that price has been bullish. 


EUR/AUD 4H Chart 7/6
(click to enlarge)

For the most part, the consolidation as a sideways one, but we did see some downwards tilt in the second half of June. Either way we look at it, we saw price eventually respect the 200-period simple moving average, holding above the 1.43 handle. The RSI, while showing a loss of bullish momentum when it broke below 40, never showed bearish momentum. 

Then, price started to rally sharply at the start of July, breaking the bearish tilted consolidation pattern as well as cracking the 1.4763 high in June. The 4H RSi also tagged 70, showing revival of bullish momentum. Adding the fact that the prevailing trend going into June was bullish, we should have some confidence that July's price action will also be bullish. 

If we get a pullback after the bullish breakout, look for the 1.46 area to provide support down to the 1.4550 level. A break below 1.45 however might be a sign of exhaustion. Otherwise, there is upside risk towards not only the high on the year at 1.4893, but also the 1.5331 high from November 2014. 

EUR/AUD Daily Chart 7/6


(click to enlarge)