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AUD/USD in a Bearish Continuation Breakout

AUD/USD started the week rebounding from 0.7580, which was June's low. After a rebound in what became a pennant pattern, the pair retreated from 0.7737 and is in a bearish continuation breakout.

AUD/USD 4H Chart 7/1

(click to enlarge)

Here are the bearish signs in the 4H chart:
1) After the rebound to start the week, price essentially held below the cluster of 200-, 100- ,and 50-period simple moving averages. This is a sign that bears are in charge.
2) The RSI tagged 30 to start the week and held below 60 after the rebound. This reflects development of bearish momentum. 
3) During the 7/1 session, price broke the pennant pattern, opening up the 0.7580 low again. 

AUD/USD Daily Chart 7/1
(click to enlarge)

When we look at the daily chart, we see a sideways market throughout the year. The market was bearish heading into 2015, but there was a bullish reversal attempt in April and May. However, this proved to be a failure, which is a sign that bears are still in charge. 

Based on the technical conditions in the 4H and Daily chart, we should see the AUD/USD test the low on the year at 0.7533. In fact, the recent respect of the 100- and 50-day SMA as resistance suggests that this bearish scenario is imminent. 

With the bearish outlook pending, we should note that the fundamental reason is the anticipation of a rate hike by the fed. If the FOMC announces that it will likely wait until 2016 to raise rates, we should see further sideways action, with some short-term bullish outlook. In this scenario, the 0.79-0.7940 area would be back in sight.