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Key Levels for USD/CAD this Week

The USD/CAD has been consolidating in June after retreating from the 1.2562 high on the month. When we look at the 4H chart, we see no signs of a any directional trends as the moving averages move sideways. The RSI shows a lack of directional momentum for the most part, However, there are some early bullish signs developing in the 4H chart. 

USD/CAD 4H Chart 6/30
(click to enlarge)

Price has hopped up above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. Then, it held above 1.23 and effectively bounced off the cluster of SMAs. Also, the RSI has tagged 70, and held above 40, which shows development of bullish momentum. 

Price is retreating from 1.2422 during the 6/30 session. If it falls below 1.2320, it will break below the cluster of SMAs, and a rising trendline, which would invalidate the nascent bullish outlook. Then, if price falls below a key support resistance area around 1.2275-1.23, the 1.2126 low on the month would come into play with the 1.21 handle in sight as well. 

On the other hand, if USD/CAD  holds mostly above 1.2350 and pushes above 1.2423, it would be a strong signal that the 1.2562 high is back in play. It would also signal a bullish continuation in the larger context, with the 1.2834 high on the year in sight. (Refer to the daily chart below)

USD/CAD Daily Chart 6/30
(click to enlarge)