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Gold - Falling Trendline Comes into Play

Recently, I became more and more confident that gold will be heading back to the low on the year, and even the 2014-low. Price action in June has convinced me thus. To start this week, the short-term price action is also showing signs that bears are in charge. 

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart 7/6

(click to enlarge)

In June, price made an ABC rally in an attempt to break above the 1200 handle. However, price stalled around 1205 and retreated sharply. This was a sign that bulls lack commitment in this market. 

As we began the month of July, price fell to 1156 and slowly drifted higher. However, as we can see in the 4H chart, the market is respecting a falling trendline as we start the week. Price is holding below the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs in the 4H chart, and the 4H RSI has been holding under 60 after tagging 30. These are signs that bears are in control in the short term. 

Even if we get a pullback this week, if price holds under the 1185 handle, the market is likely to be bearish. Indeed, gold's price action to start the week is giving me even more confidence that price is heading down to the 1142 low on the year and the 1130 2014-low.