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AUD/USD Bounces off Support to Start the Week

Since the end of May, AUD/USD has been consolidating in a range between 0.7597 and 0.7850. The resistance and support varied within this range, and we can see that price centered around the 0.7725 level, which we will call the central pivot. 

AUD/USD 4H Chart 6/29
(click to enlarge)

As we begin this week, price cracked the 0.7597 support but immediately rebounded. We should not look at this as a breakout, but rather a test of the support, which has so far held. Now, the key level to watch for is the 0.7725 central pivot. If price can rally back above 0.7725, it would break a recent falling speedline, and the 100- and 50-period simple moving averages as well. This would essentially confirm the failure of the bearish breakout attempt and put the 0.7850 level in sight. 

However, if the market is bearish, it should hold under the 0.77 handle and the falling speedline seen in the 4H chart. In fact the bearish scenario would be in line with the technical condition seen in the daily chart. 

AUD/USD Daily Chart 6/29
(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows a market that has been trading sideways for much of the year. However, we know that coming into the year the market was bearish. The fact that price is under the cluster of moving averages tells us that the AUD/USD is in a bearish-neutral mode, with emphasis on the bearish component. Another clue for the bearish outlook is that the rally in May failed to establish a price bottom as price retreated back to 0.76 at the end of the month. 

A failed bullish reversal is a strong sign that bears are still in charge of the AUD/USD in the medium-term. Let's keep the bearish bias unless price can break above 0.7725, at which point we can expect some short-term bullish outlook, but within the context of the bearish set up in the daily chart.