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EUR/GBP - Captures 0.70 in a New Low on the Year

After flattening out below 0.7388 in the beginning of June, EUR/GBP has been sliding throughout the month as we can see in the 4H chart. 

EUR/GBP 4H Chart 6/29
(click to enlarge)

The euro is taking a hit across the board to start the week. We saw the EUR/USD gap lower and pull back. The EUR/GBP also started with a break into a new low on the year at 0.6983 and immediately rebounding. It has already filled the gap. 

Now, the most likely scenario here is that there were some orders around 0.70, which was around the previous low on the year. This could have caused the exhaustion-like reaction. 

If the market is indeed still bearish, there should be resistance around 0.71. This was a previous support/resistance pivot and near a falling trendline. A break above 0.7130 would likely invalidate the bearish breakout and suggest that this initial dip this week was an exhaustion move. That would at least put the 0.72 handle in sight for this week. 

However, if EUR/USD can hold below 0.71 and retreat below 0.7050, the 0.6983 low will be back in play with further downside risk in-line with the prevailing downtrend. In the medium-term, the EUR/GBP has downside risk towards the 0.6543, which is the common low from the 2003-2007 consolidation range as we can see in the monthly chart.

EUR/GBP monthly chart 6/29
(click to enlarge)