Ruzbeh Bacha
4
All posts from Ruzbeh Bacha
Ruzbeh Bacha in City Falcon,

Gold hasn't lost its sheen yet.

Gold countered numerous bumps this year, with the year end bringing its beginning of the year rally to an abrupt halt. After soaring 25% to more than two-year highs of $1375/oz in H1 2016, Gold has lost almost 17% in H2, dragged by renewed market optimism following Trump win. A rising USD & Fed's commitment to raise rates definitely does not bode well for gold in the near term.

But,

1) The market elation is bound to undergo correction as the focus shifts to Trump policies and their execution. The risk of extreme policies / geopolitical tension is very much alive, which might lend support to gold as a safe haven.

2) A strong dollar and Fed's hawkishness have been eating into gold prices lately, but going forward, its impact on gold could be muted as the markets would have priced in the Fed's rate hikes. Also, as Trump focuses on promoting domestic manufacturing, a rational USD valuation would be required to promote US exports.

3) US debt is already at $20tn currently, at 250% of GDP. Trump's fiscal policy cost would lead to a rise of ~$3-6tn in the next 10 years. High fiscal spending combined with rising wages would lead to higher inflation, which would again be supportive of gold.

4)A possible trade war between the US / China would lead to China building up on its gold reserves, thus supporting gold. Other countries might prefer to reduce their dependence on a dollar payment systems and increase gold reserves in a scenario of increased US sanctions

All these reasons shout out Gold as a medium to long term buy.